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Two NFC teams breaking in new starting quarterbacks will meet in Week 3 as the Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints. Jordan Love has Green Bay off to a 1-1 start, and he's been everything the team could have hoped for as he leads the NFL in passing touchdowns and passer rating. Meanwhile, the Saints are off to a 2-0 start behind Derek Carr after he spent nine years with the Raiders. Both teams' backfields could be shorthanded as New Orleans will be without Alvin Kamara (suspended) and Jamaal Williams (hamstring), while Packers RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) is questionable after missing Week 2.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is favored by 1 point in the latest Saints vs. Packers odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 42.5. Before making any Packers vs. Saints picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 164-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on an 18-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Saints vs. Packers and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 3 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Saints vs. Packers:

  • Saints vs. Packers spread: Packers -1
  • Saints vs. Packers over/under: 42.5 points
  • Saints vs. Packers money line: Packers -117, Saints -102
  • Saints vs. Packers picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Saints vs. Packers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Saints can cover

The Derek Carr era has gotten off to a hot start in New Orleans. The 32-year-old veteran hasn't been particularly sharp through two games, but he has been efficient enough for New Orleans to win both of its games. Chris Olave (14 catches, 198 yards), Michael Thomas (12 catches, 116 yards), and Rashid Shaheed (9 catches, 152 yards, 1 TD) give the Saints one of the most talented wide receiver trios in the NFL.

The main reason for the Saints' early season success has been their play on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans has allowed 277.5 total yards (175.5 passing, 102 rushing) and 16 points per game. New Orleans is facing a banged up Green Bay offense dealing with injuries to David Bakhtiari (knee, questionable), Aaron Jones (hamstring, questionable) and Christian Watson (hamstring, questionable). See which team to pick here.

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay lost straight-up to Atlanta last week, but it has a tendency to bounce back following losses under coach Matt LaFleur. Since he took over in 2019, the Packers are 13-4 against the spread following a straight-up loss. Additionally, Green Bay is 12-3 ATS in September under LaFleur, which is the best against-the-spread record in the NFL over that span.

The Saints enter this matchup shorthanded, not just with the aforementioned RB absences, but safety Marcus Maye was suspended three games earlier this week. He's one of just five players with a sack and interception this season as New Orleans had the league's No. 5 defense with him in the lineup. There is sure to be some dropoff without him, and the Saints' offense isn't built to pick up the slack. The team ranks 25th in scoring, 29th in red zone offense and has committed as many turnovers as it has touchdowns scored. See which team to pick here.

How to make Saints vs. Packers picks

The model has simulated Packers vs. Saints 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Under on the point total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's Packers vs. Saints pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Packers vs. Saints on Sunday, and which side of the spread is hitting nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Saints vs. Packers spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 164-117 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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